Temperature Signals
A lead’s temperature reflects recent engagement, not where they are in the pipeline. Use this page when you want to know “why is Marcus Williams showing Hot?” or “why did this Warm lead drop to Cold yesterday?”
The three temperature bands
Section titled “The three temperature bands”| Band | Score range | What it usually means |
|---|---|---|
| Cold | < 30 | Quiet. Either never engaged much, or hasn’t touched the site in a while. |
| Warm | ≥ 30 and < 70 | Active. Returning visits, some saved properties, some replies. |
| Hot | ≥ 70 | Heavily engaged — multiple recent sessions, multiple favorites, tour requests, fast back-and-forth. |
Transitions happen at the thresholds: a score crossing 30 upward flips Cold → Warm; crossing 70 upward flips Warm → Hot. The reverse thresholds are the same numbers — drop below 30 and a lead goes Cold again.
How the score is computed
Section titled “How the score is computed”The score is recalculated on read with a 1-hour cache. Each signal contributes a point value, points sum, and the total is compared to the thresholds above.
The exact point values per signal are currently being calibrated against real session data from converted leads. The table below describes signals by relative contribution, not exact weights. Treat ordinal magnitude (high / medium / low / dampening) as load-bearing and the actual numbers as moving targets.
Signals that raise the score
Section titled “Signals that raise the score”High-contribution signals
Section titled “High-contribution signals”These are the strongest predictors that a lead is close to acting.
| Signal | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tour request submitted | Lead form / admin action | They’ve named a property and asked to walk it. |
| Pre-approval letter uploaded | Lead document | They’ve spent money getting financing-ready. |
| Multiple property favorites saved | ClientFavorite | Pattern of returning to specific homes. |
| Replied to your last outreach | CrmStateEvent | Two-way conversation is the strongest signal. |
Medium-contribution signals
Section titled “Medium-contribution signals”Consistent activity but no clear intent-to-act yet.
| Signal | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Returning sessions within 7 days | SessionEvent | Habit of coming back. |
| Saved search criteria | SessionPreference | Defined what they’re looking for. |
| Multiple property detail-page views | SessionEvent | Going deeper than browse. |
| Communication preference set by lead | CrmFlag | Caring enough to manage their inbox. |
Low-contribution signals
Section titled “Low-contribution signals”Baseline activity. Counts, but won’t move a Cold lead to Warm on its own.
| Signal | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Search-result page views | SessionEvent | Browsing, not deep-diving. |
| Email opens | SessionEvent | They saw it. They didn’t act on it. |
| Newsletter signups | Lead | Low-commitment interest. |
What dampens or lowers the score
Section titled “What dampens or lowers the score”Engagement decays. A lead that was Hot last month and hasn’t been on the site since slowly drops without anything bad happening.
| Behavior | Effect |
|---|---|
| Time since last session | Continuous decay. The longer they’ve been silent, the more the score erodes. |
| Time since last replied outreach | Decay, weighted heavier than passive silence. |
| Explicit unsubscribe / DNC flag set | Doesn’t zero the score directly, but the absence of outreach removes future positive signals. |
The score is not zeroed by a state change. A lead moving from QUALIFIED → ARCHIVED keeps whatever score they had; archive itself doesn’t mean Cold (though usually a lead reaches ARCHIVED because they’ve gone Cold).
Reading the chip on a card
Section titled “Reading the chip on a card”A card shows the temperature chip with the current score:
- Hot 92.0 — score is 92, well into the Hot band
- Warm 41.5 — score is 41.5, in the middle of Warm
- Cold 12.0 — score is 12, deep Cold
The decimal precision is intentional. A score of 69.8 is almost Hot — that’s information you’d lose with rounded bands alone.
How temperature interacts with state
Section titled “How temperature interacts with state”Temperature is computed independently of pipeline state. Common combinations and what they mean for tactics:
| State + temperature | Read |
|---|---|
NEW + Hot | Lead is engaged before you’ve even called. Get to them now. |
CONTACTING + Cold | Outreach without engagement. Try a different channel before you give up. |
QUALIFIED + Hot | Marcus Williams. Showings and offer prep. |
QUALIFIED + Cold | Pre-approved but ghosting. Re-engagement attempt; tactic differs from a hot pursuit. |
ARCHIVED + Warm rising | They came back. The score climbed past 30 — manual reactivation may be worth it. |
For the philosophical version of why these two axes don’t collapse into one, see why state and temperature are separate.
Limits and known gaps
Section titled “Limits and known gaps”- Weights are not finalized. The point values per signal will shift as the model is backtested against closed-loop data from real converted leads. Bands (30 / 70) are firm; per-signal weights will change.
- No backfill yet. Leads from before the lifecycle feature shipped (2026-05-16) don’t have synthesized temperature history. They’ll show a current score based on whatever signals exist, but the chart can look sparse.
- No SLA-style alerting on temperature. A Hot score doesn’t currently push a notification — visibility only. Watch the board.
Related
Section titled “Related”- State machine card — the other axis
- Communication flags — what flags do and don’t do to outreach